Home Money Nigeria’s Headline inflation sustains deceleration, moderates to 17.75% y/y in June 2021

Nigeria’s Headline inflation sustains deceleration, moderates to 17.75% y/y in June 2021

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FRI 16 JULY, 2021-theGBJournal- Nigeria’s headline inflation moderated by 18bps to 17.75% y/y in June 2021 (May: 17.93% y/y) – the third consecutive month of decline and the lowest since February 2021 (17.33% y/y), according to latest inflation data publisged today by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The outturn is 8bps lower than Cordros’ estimate (17.83% y/y) and 5bps less than Bloomberg’s median consensus estimate (17.80% y/y), with the deviation coming from the core basket. On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation increased by 5bps to 1.06%.

For the third consecutive month, food inflation declined by 45bps to 21.83% y/y in June 2021 (May: 22.28% y/y). Notably, the highest price increases were recorded in Bread and cereals, Potatoes, Yam and other Tubers, Milk, Cheese and Eggs, Fish, Soft drinks, Vegetables, Oils and fats and Meat. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation was higher at 1.11% in June (May: 1.05%).

Similarly, core inflation was down by 6bps to 13.09% y/y (May: 13.15% y/y). Pressures were most significant in the prices of Garments, Passenger travel by air and by road, Motor cars and Vehicle spare parts, Shoes and other footwear, Pharmaceutical products, Medical services, Hairdressing salons and personal grooming establishments, Cleaning, repair and hire of clothing, Clothing materials, Other articles of clothing and clothing accessories, Furniture and furnishing and Fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipment.

Compared to the previous month, the core index moderated by 43bps to 0.81% m/m in June.

In June 2021, all items inflation on year on year basis was highest in Kogi (23.78), Bauchi (20.67%) and Jigawa (19.81%), while Cross River (15.53%), Delta (15.18%) and Abuja (15.15%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation.

On month on month basis however, June 2021 all items inflation was highest in Kano (2.22%), Akwa Ibom (1.98%) and Osun (1.92%), while Bauchi (0.00%) recorded no change in headline month on month with Abuja and Cross River recording price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level of food or a negative food inflation rate).

In June 2021, food inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Kogi (30.34%), Enugu (25.18%) and Kwara (24.78%), while Bauchi (18.97%), River (18.92%) and Abuja (17.09%) recorded the slowest rise in year on year inflation.

On month on month basis however, June 2021 food inflation was highest in Jigawa (2.67%), Edo (2.43) and Cross River (2.16%), while Lagos (0.14%), Borno (0.06%) and Kwara (0.02% recorded the slowest rise in food inflation 

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